I recently received some interesting reports from and published by Mike Pugh (a member of the RISKANAL email newsgroup) that talk about the use of probabilistic analysis to inform nuclear safety decisions.  Both of these predate WASH-1400 by several years.  The citations are below with clickable links to download the full documents:

Pugh, M. C. (1969). “Probabilistic Approach to Safety Analysis.” TRG Report 1949 (R), The Reactor Group, United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority.  DOWNLOAD HERE.

This paper gives a brief and simple description of some of the methods employed by the Steam Generating Heavy Water Reactor (SGHWR) Design Office in the application of probability theory to achieve a safe and economic design.  Although this paper is specifically related to the design of SGHWRs the methods employed are of a general nature and could be equally applied to other reactor systems.

Pugh, M. C. (1971). “The Use of Probability Techniques in a Reactor Design Office.” SRS/GR/5, Safety and Reliability Directorate, United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority.  DOWNLOAD HERE.

The paper briefly describes how probability techniques were used in the Steam Generating Heavy Water Reactor (SGHWR) Design Office of the UKAEA to achieve a safe economic reactor design.

Probability techniques have proved to be a very useful design tool and generally promote a better understanding of a design.  The basic techniques are of value to all members of a design team who can use them in the same way that stressing and heat transfer techniques are used, i.e., to analyse simple problems and to place the more complex problems into the right perspective so that detailed analysis can be performed by a specialist.

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